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A bag has three coins in it which are visually indistinguishable, but when flipped, one coin has a 10% chance of coming up heads, another as a 30% chance of coming up heads, and the last has 60% chance of coming up heads. I randomly draw a coin from the bag and flip it, and the result comes up heads. What is the probability that if I reflip this coin, it will come up heads again? Why?
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Quantitative Trader Intern

Interviewed at Jane Street

4.4
Jan 13, 2021

A bag has three coins in it which are visually indistinguishable, but when flipped, one coin has a 10% chance of coming up heads, another as a 30% chance of coming up heads, and the last has 60% chance of coming up heads. I randomly draw a coin from the bag and flip it, and the result comes up heads. What is the probability that if I reflip this coin, it will come up heads again? Why?

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